Friday horse racing tips from Tom Lunn at Ayr and Newbury
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Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.
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Friday April 19th horse racing tips
AYR
- 2.20: Catch Him Derry 2/1 (1.5pts)
- 2.50: Outlaw Peter 11/2 each-way (1.5pts)
NEWBURY
- 3.12: Arabian Tribe (NAP - 2pts)
- 3.45: Metier 5/1 each-way (1pt)
- 4.15: Circe 7/1 each-way (NB - 1.5pts)
Catch Him Derry
Placed just behind Gwennie May Boy on his fourth start over hurdles and that was clearly a big step in the right direction, in February.
Gwennie May Boy has gone on to win a Class 2 at Uttoxeter and then followed that up with success at Aintree last week in the Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle.
Now rated 137, it seems as though Catch Him Derry who's only 2/1 to land this 17-runner contest is incredibly well weighted to strike the front for another win for the Skelton team.
Outlaw Peter
Prairie Wolf has won two in succession carrying top-weight on both occasions.
That followed a very decent fourth behind Ginny's Destiny back in January and has just continually progressed this season for trainer Sue Smith.
But there's a few in this field in top form recently, with all of Outlaw Peter, Nells Son, Numitor, General Officer and Jet Plane who have won last time out.
Outlaw Peter has been exceptional though, even in defeat, to the improving Corrigeen Rock and Thunder Rock.
Going left handed again for the first time in 2024 might see more improvement, up just 5lb for latest win at Kempton.
Arabian Tribe
Arabian Tribe cost 750,000gns and won on debut under Danny Tudhope back in December.
Now has William Buick on board where the Charlie Appleby combination has seen a great success rate at the start of this year with a few favourites disappointing, but a few roaring home too.
The three-year-old colt got the job done well and always looked like winning on debut, and should come on from that nicely to beat some debutants.
Metier
Prince Alex has won on turf six times in 20 starts.
He's right down in the weights since his time with Jonny Murtagh and Michael Bell, having been switched yards multiple times.
Failed to get back to winning ways when last seen at Haydock on heavy ground, all while having a 7lb claimer on board.
But he was carrying close to top weight, giving away 10lb to the winner.
But he still beat the rest of the field, including the likes of Dark Jedi and De Vega's Warrior in a stretched out finish.
Not So Sleepy comes into this at 12-years-old with plenty to like, but a tough challenge off a mark of 101.
But it's Metier that stands out who can go well fresh, likes soft ground and this distance. But is also boosted by the in-form trainer and jockey combination.
Saffie Osborne has won eight in her last 28 rides at time of writing, while Harry Fry has a 50% strike-rate in the last two weeks with three winners from just six runners.
Circe
Circe is a promising filly who, if she's developed well enough over the winter, could be a classy runner for Richard Hannon.
The three-year-old had a promising campaign as a two-year-old in 2023, winning ahead of Looking For Queen at Doncaster in a Class 2 maiden contest, before heading into a Group 3 fillies Stakes at Newmarket next time out.
That was won by one of the leading contenders for the 1000 Guineas, Dance Sequence. So there's clearly ability there and she has a great chance of being well-weighted on handicap debut.
Tom Lunn's Racing Tips Profit + Loss
- October-Present: +147.19pts
- Total from July 2023: +220.56pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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